The Tuesday, February 18 spring primary election is set to occur amidst a cold weather advisory from the U.S. National Weather Service. Until noon on the Tuesday of the election, temperatures are not expected to rise above 7 degrees and may fall as low as 29 degrees below zero. These harsh conditions don’t bode well for drawing potential voters out of their homes for the primary election. The major statewide question will address selecting a candidate to fill the role of State Superintendent for Public Instruction.
The 2021 spring primary election also mainly posed a question about the State Superintendent. That race saw the current incumbent, Jill Underly, win for the first time with just over 88,000 votes (or 27.3% of the vote). Statewide, there were about 326,000 votes cast in that race. Three special elections also helped drive voter turnout. 10,500 votes were cast in the primary for the Senate’s 13th Congressional district. 3,700 votes were cast in the Assembly’s 89th district primary and 3,800 votes were cast in the Assembly’s 37th district primary. These special elections may have helped drive voter turnout in these districts, as voters were more incentivized by the value of their choice.
The primary turnout in 2021 saw about 9% of registered voters turning out. It is important to note that this election took place amidst the COVID-19 pandemic when cautious voters often opted into early voting and mail-in ballots to avoid unnecessary in-person contact. In the 2024 election, 72.6% of voters turned out. However, there is a noticeable shift in peoples’ attitude and awareness about the spring primary as opposed to the general Presidential election. As a result, the incredibly high turnout numbers of last November are expected to fall.
The bitterly cold temperatures may further contribute to a lower than average voter turnout. In general, years of studies have shown how poor weather conditions may lead to lower voter turnout. Typically, low propensity voters who have an inconsistent history of participating in elections, are the most severely impacted. Additionally, young voters are less likely to show up for both primary elections and elections held on “bad” weather days. However, mail-in voting may have helped solve this problem. Between 1996 and 2020, there was a 43% rise in mail-in voting nationally. This means that cold weather might not affect elections as severely as in the past.
Waukesha County faces a week’s forecast of bitterly cold weather. Despite the possibility of sunshine, temperatures likely won’t reach double digits until the end of the week. The Waukesha County Sheriff’s Department has published notices for locals on the dangerous cold and the possibility of frostbite. They recommend dressing properly in multiple thick layers and exposing very little skin to the air.
