(The Center Square) – Population projections are decreased, and with it the Wisconsin Counties Association’s Housing Outlook says fewer homes will be needed.
In 2023, the association projected the need to build 140,000 new homes by 2030 to keep up with demand. The report released last month says the state needs only 84,000 new homes.
“In late 2024, the Wisconsin Department of Administration released new population projections anchored to the 2020 Census,” the report says. “Those projections tell a more challenging story than the 2023 report. The working-age population is now projected to decline by closer to 200,000, and the senior population is expected to grow more slowly than originally anticipated.
“The prime working-age population, that is those aged 25 to 64, is the broadest measure of Wisconsin’s labor force and the primary driver of housing demand for owner-occupied units. The decline is concentrated among those aged 55-64, the younger half of the baby boom generation, who account for 171,096 of that projected drop. This is the single most significant demographic shift of the decade.”
Wisconsin has a housing availability problem. The state’s Realtors Association has noted not enough homes for sale for years. That lack of availability is one of the reasons why the price of homes continues to increase.
The association report acknowledges the same problem.
“A state that constructs only enough housing for a shrinking workforce is not positioning itself to grow, attract talent, or remain economically competitive through the next decade and beyond,” the authors wrote.
The report, though, strikes a positive tone when looking at whether Wisconsin can build enough homes to remain competitive.
“Lot creation is the furthest upstream measure of housing capacity because permits can only be issued, and homes can only be built, where lots already exist,” the report states. “From 2020 through 2025, there were an average of 5,600 lots created per year, an increase from the 4,600 created per year in the preceding five-year period.”
Those numbers, however, are far below the pre-2008 numbers which averaged over 14,000 lots created per year.
The report says, “The next few years of lot creation and permit data will signal which path Wisconsin is on. Lot creation ticked upward in 2025 to its highest level since 2007, which is encouraging, but still far short of preGreat Recession levels. Permitting has increased in recent years as well, but these incremental increases may not be enough to make up for years of lower construction and underdevelopment.”
